Modelling surface runoff to evaluate the effects of wildfires in multiple semi‐arid,shrubland‐dominated catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Elias Moussoulis  Giorgos Mallinis  Nikos Koutsias  Ierotheos Zacharias 《水文研究》2015,29(20):4427-4441

Wildfires change the infiltration properties of soil, reduce the amount of interception and result in increased runoff. A wildfire at Northeast Attica, Central Greece, in August 2009, destroyed approximately one third of a study area consisting of a mixture of shrublands, pastures and pines. The present study simultaneously models multiple semi‐arid, shrubland‐dominated Mediterranean catchments and assesses the hydrological response (mean annual and monthly runoff and runoff coefficients) during the first few years following wildfires. A physically based, hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was chosen. Calibration and validation results of mean monthly discharge presented very good agreement with the observed data for the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire period for two subcatchments (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 79.7%). The model was then used to assess the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire runoff responses for each of seven catchments in the study area. Mean annual surface runoff increased for the first year and after the second year following the wildfires increased by 112% and 166%, respectively. These values are within the range observed in similar cases of monitored sites. This modelling approach may provide a way of prioritizing catchment selection with respect to post‐fire remediation activities. Additionally, this modelling assessment methodology would be valuable to other semi‐arid areas because it provides an important means for comprehensively assessing post‐wildfire response over large regions and therefore attempts to address some of the scaled issues in the specific literature field of research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Soil property variation mapping through data mining of soil category maps          下载免费PDF全文

Fei Du  A‐Xing Zhu  Lawrence Band  Jing Liu 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2491-2503

Spatial information on soil properties is an important input to hydrological models. In current hydrological modelling practices, soil property information is often derived from soil category maps by the linking method in which a representative soil property value is linked to each soil polygon. Limited by the area‐class nature of soil category maps, the derived soil property variation is discontinuous and less detailed than high resolution digital terrain or remote sensing data. This research proposed dmSoil, a data‐mining‐based approach to derive continuous and spatially detailed soil property information from soil category maps. First, the soil–environment relationships are extracted through data mining of a soil map. The similarity of the soil at each location to different soil types in the soil map is then estimated using the mined relationships. Prediction of soil property values at each location is made by combining the similarities of the soil at that location to different soil types and the representative soil property values of these soil types. The new approach was applied in the Raffelson Watershed and Pleasant Valley in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, United States to map soil A horizon texture (in both areas) and depth to soil C horizon (in Pleasant Valley). The property maps from the dmSoil approach capture the spatial gradation and details of soil properties better than those from the linking method. The new approach also shows consistent accuracy improvement at validation points. In addition to the improved performances, the inputs for the dmSoil approach are easy to prepare, and the approach itself is simple to deploy. It provides an effective way to derive better soil property information from soil category maps for hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The role of climate change and human interventions in affecting watershed runoff responses     

Tesfaye Belay Senbeta  Renata Julita Romanowicz 《水文研究》2021,35(12):e14448

Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation.  相似文献   

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Pan Liu  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4398-4413

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.  相似文献   

A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom          下载免费PDF全文

Peter Metcalfe  Keith Beven  Barry Hankin  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1734-1748

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献   

Estimation of instantaneous peak flow from maximum mean daily flow by regionalization of catchment model parameters          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Ding  Uwe Haberlandt 《水文研究》2017,31(3):612-626

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Quantifying flows along hydrological pathways by applying a new filtering algorithm in conjunction with master recession curve analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Ronan J. O'Brien  Bruce D. Misstear  Laurence W. Gill  Paul M. Johnston  Raymond Flynn 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6211-6221

Quantifying the proportion of the river hydrograph derived from the different hydrological pathways is essential for understanding the behaviour of a catchment. This paper describes a new approach using the output from master recession curve analysis to inform a new algorithm based on the Lyne and Hollick ‘one‐parameter’ signal analysis filtering algorithm. This approach was applied to six catchments (including two subcatchments of these) in Ireland. The conceptual model for each catchment consists of four main flow pathways: overland flow, interflow, shallow groundwater and deep groundwater. The results were compared with those of the master recession curve analysis, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland and the semi‐distributed, lumped and deterministic hydrological model Nedbør‐Afstrømings‐Model. The new algorithm removes the ‘free variable’ aspect that is typically associated with filtering algorithms and provides a means of estimating the contribution of each pathway that is consistent with the results of hydrograph separation in catchments that are dominated by quick response pathways. These types of catchments are underlain by poorly productive aquifers that are not capable of providing large baseflows in the river. Such aquifers underlie over 73% of Ireland, ensuring that this new algorithm is applicable in the majority of catchments in Ireland and potentially in those catchments internationally that are strongly influenced by the quick‐responding hydrological pathways. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Quantifying the impact of landscape changes on hydrological variables in the alpine and cold region using hydrological model and remote sensing data     

Zizhen Jin  Qiudong Zhao  Xiang Qin  Jingtian Zhang  Hui Zhang  Jia Qin  Yu Qin  Hongyuan Li  Jizu Chen  Yushuo Liu  Yanzhao Li  Lihui Wang 《水文研究》2021,35(10):e14392

Quantifying the impact of landscape on hydrological variables is essential for the sustainable development of water resources. Understanding how landscape changes influence hydrological variables will greatly enhance the understanding of hydrological processes. Important vegetation parameters are considered in this study by using remote sensing data and VIC-CAS model to analyse the impact of landscape changes on hydrology in upper reaches of the Shule River Basin (URSLB). The results show there are differences in the runoff generation of landscape both in space and time. With increasing altitude, the runoff yields increased, with approximately 79.9% of the total runoff generated in the high mountains (4200–5900 m), and mainly consumed in the mid-low mountain region. Glacier landscape produced the largest runoff yields (24.9% of the total runoff), followed by low-coverage grassland (LG; 22.5%), alpine cold desert (AL; 19.6%), mid-coverage grassland (MG; 15.6%), bare land (12.5%), high-coverage grassland (HG; 4.5%) and shrubbery (0.4%). The relative capacity of runoff generation by landscapes, from high to low, was the glaciers, AL, LG, HG, MG, shrubbery and bare land. Furthermore, changes in landscapes cause hydrological variables changes, including evapotranspiration, runoff and baseflow. The study revealed that HG, MG, and bare land have a positive impact on evapotranspiration and a negative impact on runoff and baseflow, whereas AL and LG have a positive impact on runoff and baseflow and a negative impact on evapotranspiration. In contrast, glaciers have a positive impact on runoff. After the simulation in four vegetation scenarios, we concluded that the runoff regulation ability of grassland is greater than that of bare land. The grassland landscape is essential since it reduced the flood peak and conserved the soil and water.  相似文献   

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran     

Golaleh Ghaffari  Saskia Keesstra  Jamal Ghodousi  Hassan Ahmadi 《水文研究》2010,24(7):892-903

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study     

A. Montenegro  R. Ragab 《水文研究》2010,24(19):2705-2723

Brazilian semi‐arid regions are characterized by water scarcity, vulnerability to desertification, and climate variability. The investigation of hydrological processes in this region is of major interest not only for water planning strategies but also to address the possible impact of future climate and land‐use changes on water resources. A hydrological distributed catchment‐scale model (DiCaSM) has been applied to simulate hydrological processes in a small representative catchment of the Brazilian northeast semi‐arid region, and also to investigate the impact of climate and land‐use changes, as well as changes associated with biofuel/energy crops production. The catchment is part of the Brazilian network for semi‐arid hydrology, established by the Brazilian Federal Government. Estimating and modelling streamflow (STF) and recharge in semi‐arid areas is a challenging task, mainly because of limitation in in situ measurements, and also due to the local nature of some processes. Direct recharge measurements are very difficult in semi‐arid catchments and contain a high level of uncertainty. The latter is usually addressed by short‐ and long‐time‐scale calibration and validation at catchment scale, as well as by examining the model sensitivity to the physical parameters responsible for the recharge. The DiCaSM model was run from 2000 to 2008, and streamflow was successfully simulated, with a Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient of 0·73, and R² of 0·79. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios for the region, the DiCaSM model forecasted a reduction by 35%, 68%, and 77%, in groundwater recharge (GWR), and by 34%, 65%, and 72%, in streamflow, for the time spans 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, respectively, could take place for a dry future climate scenario. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Introducing castor beans to the catchment would increase the GWR and streamflow, mainly if the caatinga areas would be converted into castor beans production. Changing an area of 1000 ha from caatinga to castor beans would increase the GWR by 46% and streamflow by 3%. If the same area of pasture is converted into castor beans, there would be an increase in GWR and streamflow by 24% and 5%, respectively. Such results are expected to contribute towards environmental policies for north‐east Brazil (NEB), and to biofuel production perspectives in the region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献